From Karabakh to Yerevan: Post-Conflict Democratization in Armenia

The forced displacement of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian population in September 2023 and the subsequent dissolution of all state institutions implemented on the 1 January 2024 marked the end of what was the unrecognized state of Nagorno-Karabakh. 120,000 people (essentially the entire Armenian population) fled their homes and went to Armenia as refugees. However, despite the tragic nature of the event and the humanitarian crisis, which still needs to be dealt with, the South Caucasus republic may have ‘a chance’ to aim for a peaceful and prosperous administration within. This article explores, above all, the hypothesis that the 2020 and 2023 defeats in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, culminating in the effective dismantling of the Republic of Artsakh, have paradoxically created conditions for democratic consolidation in Armenia. Drawing on the Territorial Peace Theory, this article argues that the loss of contested territory may reduce external threats and nationalist pressure, thereby opening space for domestic reform and liberal governance. In this context, the abandonment of the so-called “Karabakhist” rhetoric and mode of making policy—as provocatively defined by Levon Ter-Petrossian during a campaign event in Sevan in 2008 and later echoed by Pashinyan—becomes both a symbolic and structural break with the past (Ter-Petrosyan 2008). Through a review of political developments in Armenia from 2018 to 2024, the paper assesses whether military defeat and the collapse of the Karabakh-centered political order have contributed to a redefinition of national identity, foreign policy orientation, and institutional resilience. The article also considers the emotional and political costs of this process and the tensions between democratization and national trauma. Finally, it examines whether and how the European Union’s engagement aligns with this democratization trajectory and contributes to shaping Armenia’s post-conflict transition.